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Ten-year Treasury yields were well above 3% for most of the past half-century, exceeding 15% in the 1980s, according to Ryan ALM & Tradeweb ICE. That may have surprised some in the market who expected a less aggressive pace, Mr. The Fed’s latest policy-meeting minutes suggest the central bank could raise rates by a half-percentage point on Wednesday and begin reducing its $9 trillion asset portfolio.
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Illustration: Ryan Trefesįed officials increased interest rates by a quarter-percentage-point in March. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an inverted yield curve can be so reliable in predicting recession and why market watchers are talking about it now. Treasury yield curve has been seen as a recession warning sign for decades, and it looks like it’s about to light up again.
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“Even as the Fed has signaled they are going to tighten significantly it hasn’t really seemed to bring down inflation expectations yet, not durably.”Īn inversion of the U.S. “There’s a lot of uncertainty with respect to inflation, monetary policy, geopolitics,” Mr. Investors are unlikely to get much relief until inflation concerns abate, a wild card when Covid-19 outbreaks in Asia are pressuring global supply chains and the war in Ukraine is driving up commodity prices, said
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In this case, the labor market is extremely tight and inflation is running at its fastest pace in decades, prompting the Fed to signal a rapid series of interest-rate increases and sparking a steep climb in yields that has sent shock waves through markets. Rising yields are often associated with a strengthening economy because faster growth and a tighter labor market can lead central banks to crack down on inflation. Yields on Treasurys largely reflect investors’ expectations for short-term interest rates over the life of a bond.